SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 48% of the time
Very strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
PayPal was spun off from eBay in 2015 and provides electronic payment solutions to merchants and consumers, with a focus on online transactions. The company had 439 million active accounts at the end of 2025. The company also owns Venmo, a person-to-person payment platform.
Market cap 44.8B · 23,800 employees
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+20%) is 2.3σ from the long-run average of -91% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-5%) and fall (-7%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-91%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,245 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 5Y Treasury Yield at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-91%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-92% → -90%
Likely range
R²
82.5%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
48.0%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,245
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,245 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
16,067
Normalized
1,255
16,067
Prepared
1,255
16,067
Aligned
1,245
1,245
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-5%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-7%
55 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
134 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
14,832
A: 10 / B: 14822
Series A
PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
PYPL
Market cap 44.8B · 23,800 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
DGS5
FRED · 16,067 raw → 16,067 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0158
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.9454
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 1 hour ago · ID: fred-dgs5_stock-pypl_5y