SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 46% of the time
Very strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Peloton Interactive Inc operates an interactive fitness platform. It operates its business in two reportable segments: Connected Fitness Products and Subscription. Connected Fitness Product derives revenue from the portfolio of Connected Fitness Products and related accessories, as well as Precor-branded fitness products, delivery and installation services, Peloton Bike portfolio rental products, extended warranty agreements, branded apparel, and commercial service contracts. Subscription revenue is derived from monthly Subscription fees. The company generates maximum revenue from the Subscription segment. Geographically, the company derives a majority of its revenue from North America and t
Market cap 2.3B · 2,145 employees
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (-2%) is running 1.8σ away from the long-run average of -88%.
Decouples in drawdowns
Correlation weakens when both fall (-0%) vs when both rise (-24%) — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-88%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,245 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 5Y Treasury Yield at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-88%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-89% → -86%
Likely range
R²
77.1%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
46.3%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,245
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,245 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
16,067
Normalized
1,255
16,067
Prepared
1,255
16,067
Aligned
1,245
1,245
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-24%
63 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0%
63 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-36%
123 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
14,832
A: 10 / B: 14822
Series A
Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock
PTON
Market cap 2.3B · 2,145 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
DGS5
FRED · 16,067 raw → 16,067 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0331
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.0553
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 1 hour ago · ID: fred-dgs5_stock-pton_5y
DGS5
5Y Treasury Yield
Strongest positive