SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 44% of the time
Very strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Peloton Interactive Inc operates an interactive fitness platform. It operates its business in two reportable segments: Connected Fitness Products and Subscription. Connected Fitness Product derives revenue from the portfolio of Connected Fitness Products and related accessories, as well as Precor-branded fitness products, delivery and installation services, Peloton Bike portfolio rental products, extended warranty agreements, branded apparel, and commercial service contracts. Subscription revenue is derived from monthly Subscription fees. The company generates maximum revenue from the Subscription segment. Geographically, the company derives a majority of its revenue from North America and t
Market cap 2.3B · 2,145 employees
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+30%) is 2.2σ from the long-run average of -86% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
PTON moves ~12 weeks before 30Y Mortgage Rate
Watch PTON for an early read on 30Y Mortgage Rate.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-0%) and fall (+4%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-92%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock today line up with 30Y Mortgage Rate 12 weeks from now?"
249 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 12 weeks earlier
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-86%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-89% → -82%
Likely range
R²
73.9%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
44.1%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
2,875
Normalized
1,255
2,875
Prepared
261
2,875
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0%
51 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+4%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-36%
141 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,614
A: 0 / B: 2614
Series A
Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock
PTON
Market cap 2.3B · 2,145 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,875 raw → 2,875 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0396
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
6.6803
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 1 hour ago · ID: fred-mortgage30us_stock-pton_5y
MORTGAGE30US
30Y Mortgage Rate
Strongest positive