SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-53%
of values
In sync
41%
of periods
History
1,217
weeks · through 2026-17
These move opposite each other about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~28% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-53%
Based on values
95% CI
-57% → -49%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,217 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
5,837
2,886
Normalized
5,837
2,886
Prepared
1,218
2,886
Aligned
1,217
1,217
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
27.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,217
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-53%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,217 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-53%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-53%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+24%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
151 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,670
A: 1 / B: 1669
Series A
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,837 raw → 1,218 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,886 raw → 2,886 prepared
Sign agreement
9.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
31
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.5089
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.6400
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-nfci_fred-t5yie_5y