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Correlation
of values
-52%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-35
1,235
These move in the same direction about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~27% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-52%
Based on values
95% CI
-56% → -47%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,235 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
5,925
2,904
Normalized
5,925
2,904
Prepared
1,237
2,904
Aligned
1,235
1,235
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
27%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,235
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-52%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,235 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-52%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-52%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-20%
5 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,671
A: 2 / B: 1669
Series A
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,925 raw → 1,237 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,904 raw → 2,904 prepared
Sign agreement
9.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
31
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4984
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.6213
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-nfci_fred-t5yie_weekly_5y