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Correlation
of values
-71%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-35
2,383
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~51% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-71%
Based on values
95% CI
-73% → -69%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,383 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,904
11,462
Normalized
2,904
11,462
Prepared
2,904
2,384
Aligned
2,383
2,383
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
51%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
2,383
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-71%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,383 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-71%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-71%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
522
A: 521 / B: 1
Series A
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,904 raw → 2,904 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,462 raw → 2,384 prepared
Sign agreement
20.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
23
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3879
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.6046
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_fred-nfci_weekly_5y