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Correlation
of values
-71%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-17
2,365
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~51% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-71%
Based on values
95% CI
-73% → -69%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,365 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,886
11,370
Normalized
2,886
11,370
Prepared
2,886
2,365
Aligned
2,365
2,365
Invalid removed
R²(i)
50.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
2,365
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-71%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,365 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-71%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-71%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+11%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+46%
79 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-25%
99 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
521
A: 521 / B: 0
Series A
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,886 raw → 2,886 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,370 raw → 2,365 prepared
Sign agreement
20.4%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3892
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.6029
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 6 days ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_fred-nfci_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
No additional saved correlations yet.