SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
of values
+63%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
663
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~39% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+63%
Based on values
95% CI
+58% → +67%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
663 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,886
706
Normalized
2,886
706
Prepared
664
706
Aligned
663
663
Invalid removed
R²(i)
39.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
663
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+63%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
663 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+63%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+45%
69 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+52%
80 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-36%
100 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
44
A: 1 / B: 43
Series A
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,886 raw → 664 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 706 raw → 706 prepared
Sign agreement
31.2%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
20
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
14.2718
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.9422
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-nfci_fred-recprousm156n_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.