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Correlation
of values
-56%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
606
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~32% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Chicago Financial Conditions moves ~11 months before Total Vehicle Sales
Watch Chicago Financial Conditions for an early read on Total Vehicle Sales.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-56%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
606 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,895
606
Normalized
2,895
606
Prepared
666
606
Aligned
606
606
Invalid removed
32%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
606
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+11 months
Correlation at this shift
-63%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Vehicle Sales shifted 11 months earlier. Reads: "Does Chicago Financial Conditions today line up with Total Vehicle Sales 11 months from now?"
595 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-56%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+11 months
-63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+13%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+7%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
31 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
60
A: 60 / B: 0
Series A
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,895 raw → 666 prepared
Series B
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 606 raw → 606 prepared
Sign agreement
23.8%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
55
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.4256
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
15.0336
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-nfci_fred-totalsa_monthly_5y