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Correlation
of values
-56%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
603
These move opposite each other about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~32% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Chicago Financial Conditions moves ~11 months before Total Vehicle Sales
Watch Chicago Financial Conditions for an early read on Total Vehicle Sales.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-56%
Based on values
95% CI
-61% → -50%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
603 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,887
603
Normalized
2,887
603
Prepared
665
603
Aligned
603
603
Invalid removed
R²(i)
31.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
603
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+11 months
Correlation at this shift
-63%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Vehicle Sales shifted 11 months earlier. Reads: "Does Chicago Financial Conditions today line up with Total Vehicle Sales 11 months from now?"
592 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-56%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+11 months
-63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-2%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-4%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
134 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
62
A: 62 / B: 0
Series A
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,887 raw → 665 prepared
Series B
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 603 raw → 603 prepared
Sign agreement
23.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
53
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.4249
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
15.0279
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-nfci_fred-totalsa_monthly_5y