SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+86%
of values
In sync
59%
of periods
History
1,687
days · through 2026-04-24
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~73% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+86%
Based on values
95% CI
+84% → +87%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,687 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,687
2,886
Normalized
1,687
2,886
Prepared
1,687
2,886
Aligned
1,687
1,687
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
73.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,687
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+86%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,687 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+86%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+86%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+83%
81 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+55%
103 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-76%
65 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,199
A: 0 / B: 1199
Series A
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,687 raw → 1,687 prepared
Series B
NFCI
FRED · 2,886 raw → 2,886 prepared
Sign agreement
72.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
231
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4160
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.3937
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 6 hours ago · ID: fred-nfci_fred-stlfsi4_5y