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Correlation
of values
+85%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-35
1,705
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~73% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+85%
Based on values
95% CI
+84% → +87%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,705 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,705
2,904
Normalized
1,705
2,904
Prepared
1,705
2,904
Aligned
1,705
1,705
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
73%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,705
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+85%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,705 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+85%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+85%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-71%
5 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,199
A: 0 / B: 1199
Series A
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,705 raw → 1,705 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,904 raw → 2,904 prepared
Sign agreement
72.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
241
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4149
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.3926
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-nfci_fred-stlfsi4_weekly_5y