SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+77%
of values
In sync
56%
of periods
History
388
months · through 2026-03
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~60% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+77%
Based on values
95% CI
+73% → +81%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
388 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,687
706
Normalized
1,687
706
Prepared
389
706
Aligned
388
388
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
60.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
388
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+77%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
388 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+77%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+77%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+88%
70 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+80%
77 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-38%
102 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
319
A: 1 / B: 318
Series A
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,687 raw → 389 prepared
Series B
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 706 raw → 706 prepared
Sign agreement
38.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
15.5678
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.4290
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 6 hours ago · ID: fred-recprousm156n_fred-stlfsi4_5y