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Correlation
of values
+77%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
392
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~60% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+77%
Based on values
95% CI
+73% → +81%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
392 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,705
710
Normalized
1,705
710
Prepared
393
710
Aligned
392
392
Invalid removed
R²(i)
60%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
392
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+77%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
392 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+77%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+77%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+4%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+78%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-50%
55 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
319
A: 1 / B: 318
Series A
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,705 raw → 393 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 710 raw → 710 prepared
Sign agreement
36.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
15.3643
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.6045
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-recprousm156n_fred-stlfsi4_monthly_5y