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Correlation
of values
+78%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
390
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~60% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+78%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
390 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,696
708
Normalized
1,696
708
Prepared
391
708
Aligned
390
390
Invalid removed
60%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
390
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+78%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
390 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+78%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+78%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-5%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+86%
36 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
57 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
319
A: 1 / B: 318
Series A
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,696 raw → 391 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 708 raw → 708 prepared
Sign agreement
36.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
15.4737
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.4050
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-recprousm156n_fred-stlfsi4_monthly_5y