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Correlation
of values
-36%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
547
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USD/HKD Exchange Rate moves ~7 months before Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Watch USD/HKD Exchange Rate for an early read on Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-36%
Based on values
95% CI
-43% → -28%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
547 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
710
11,462
Normalized
710
11,462
Prepared
710
549
Aligned
547
547
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
547
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-7 months
Correlation at this shift
-41%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/HKD Exchange Rate shifted 7 months later. Reads: "Does Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities today line up with USD/HKD Exchange Rate 7 months ago?"
540 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-7 months
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+2%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+11%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
31 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
165
A: 163 / B: 2
Series A
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 710 raw → 710 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,462 raw → 549 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0073
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.7337
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_fred-recprousm156n_monthly_5y