SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
of values
-36%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-09
543
These move opposite each other about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
USD/HKD Exchange Rate moves ~7 weeks before Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Watch USD/HKD Exchange Rate for an early read on Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-36%
Based on values
95% CI
-43% → -28%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
543 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
706
11,370
Normalized
706
11,370
Prepared
706
2,365
Aligned
543
543
Invalid removed
R²(i)
12.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
543
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-7 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-41%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/HKD Exchange Rate shifted 7 weeks later. Reads: "Does Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities today line up with USD/HKD Exchange Rate 7 weeks ago?"
536 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-7 weeks
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+65%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+8%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-26%
132 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,985
A: 163 / B: 1822
Series A
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 706 raw → 706 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,370 raw → 2,365 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
12
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0073
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.7286
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_fred-recprousm156n_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.