SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 57% of the time
Strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
US GDP
GDP
2Y Treasury Yield
DGS2
What to Watch
2Y Treasury Yield moves ~12 weeks before US GDP
Watch 2Y Treasury Yield for an early read on US GDP.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-18%) and fall (+11%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-79%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
2Y Treasury Yield shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does US GDP today line up with 2Y Treasury Yield 12 weeks ago?"
187 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 2Y Treasury Yield shifted 12 weeks later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-69%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-76% → -61%
Likely range
R²
47.5%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
57.1%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
199
Usable
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
199 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
317
12,474
Normalized
317
12,474
Prepared
317
2,605
Aligned
199
199
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-18%
106 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+11%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+21%
85 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,524
A: 118 / B: 2406
Series A
GDP
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Series B
DGS2
FRED · 12,474 raw → 2,605 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0003
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.9013
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:dgs2|fred:gdp|5Y
DGS2
2Y Treasury Yield
Strongest positive