SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
Moderate inverse
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil worldwide. In 2025, it produced 3.3 million barrels of liquids and 8.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At the end of 2025, reserves were 19.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 69% of which were liquids. The company is one of the world's largest refiners, with a total global refining capacity of 4.1 million barrels of oil per day, and is one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals.
Market cap 625.8B · 57,900 employees
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
What to Watch
Initial Jobless Claims moves ~12 weeks before XOM
Watch Initial Jobless Claims for an early read on XOM.
Tighter in drawdowns
Pair moves more tightly when both fall (-26%) than when both rise (-3%) — typical risk-off behaviour.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-67%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
Initial Jobless Claims shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Exxon Mobil Corporation today line up with Initial Jobless Claims 12 weeks ago?"
248 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Initial Jobless Claims shifted 12 weeks later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-60%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-67% → -52%
Likely range
R²
36.0%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
51.2%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
260
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
260 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
3,095
Normalized
1,255
3,095
Prepared
261
3,095
Aligned
260
260
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-3%
62 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-26%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
130 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,836
A: 1 / B: 2835
Series A
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM
Market cap 625.8B · 57,900 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
ICSA
FRED · 3,095 raw → 3,095 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1342.3795
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
373332.9977
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:icsa|stock:xom|5Y
ICSA
Initial Jobless Claims
Strongest positive