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Toncoin (TON) vs Initial Jobless Claims
Correlation
of % moves
+15%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-35
100
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~2% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
TON moves ~10 weeks before Initial Jobless Claims
Watch TON for an early read on Initial Jobless Claims.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+15%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-5% → +34%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
100 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
701
3,113
Normalized
701
3,113
Prepared
102
3,113
Aligned
100
100
Invalid removed
R²(i)
2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
98
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+10 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-31%
+16% stronger than no-shift baseline
Initial Jobless Claims shifted 10 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Toncoin (TON) today line up with Initial Jobless Claims 10 weeks from now?"
87 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+15%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+10 weeks
-31%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+25%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-7%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-38%
50 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,015
A: 2 / B: 3013
Series A
Toncoin (TON)
TON
Crypto · 701 raw → 102 prepared
Series B
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,113 raw → 3,113 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
23
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0738
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0001
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-ton_fred-icsa_weekly_5y