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Toncoin (TON) vs Initial Jobless Claims
Correlation
of % moves
+15%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-26
100
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~2% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Initial Jobless Claims moves ~2 weeks before TON
Watch Initial Jobless Claims for an early read on TON.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+15%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
100 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
701
3,104
Normalized
701
3,104
Prepared
102
3,104
Aligned
100
100
Invalid removed
2%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
98
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-2 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-30%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
Initial Jobless Claims shifted 2 weeks later. Reads: "Does Toncoin (TON) today line up with Initial Jobless Claims 2 weeks ago?"
94 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+15%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-2 weeks
-30%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+18%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-3%
36 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-36%
47 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,006
A: 2 / B: 3004
Series A
Toncoin (TON)
TON
Crypto · 701 raw → 102 prepared
Series B
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,104 raw → 3,104 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
29
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0695
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: crypto-ton_fred-icsa_weekly_5y