SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 44% of the time
Weak inverse
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
Stellar
XLM
Layer 1 · USD pair
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+45%) is running 2.0σ away from the long-run average of -5%.
Initial Jobless Claims moves ~2 days before XLM
Watch Initial Jobless Claims for an early read on XLM.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-17%) and fall (+2%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
-2 days
Correlation at this shift
-13%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Initial Jobless Claims shifted 2 days later. Reads: "Does Stellar today line up with Initial Jobless Claims 2 days ago?"
102 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Initial Jobless Claims shifted 2 days later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-5%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-24% → +14%
Likely range
R²
0.3%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
44.4%
Same-direction moves
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
104
Usable
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
104 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
730
3,095
Normalized
730
3,095
Prepared
730
3,095
Aligned
104
104
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-17%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+2%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
59 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,617
A: 626 / B: 2991
Series A
Stellar
XLM
Crypto · 730 raw → 730 prepared
Series B
ICSA
FRED · 3,095 raw → 3,095 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
29
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-5173.0951
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
225659.0974
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: crypto:xlm|fred:icsa|5Y
ICSA
Initial Jobless Claims
Strongest positive