SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 48% of the time
Moderate inverse
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Starbucks stands out as the world's biggest and most recognizable coffee brand, powered by ultracustomizable beverages in-store and a sweeping footprint of nearly 41,000 cafes in over 80 countries. About 52% are company-operated, with the balance run by licensees. The company operates roasteries and sells across its North America (74% of revenue as of the end of fiscal 2025), international (21%), and channel development (5%) segments. The brand collects revenue from company-operated stores, licensee royalties, equipment and product sales, retail ready-to-drink beverages, and packaged coffee.
Market cap 110.8B · 381,000 employees
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+35%) is running 1.9σ away from the long-run average of -51%.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-8%) and fall (-3%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-51%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,245 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 5Y Treasury Yield at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-51%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-55% → -46%
Likely range
R²
25.6%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
48.4%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,245
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,245 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
16,067
Normalized
1,255
16,067
Prepared
1,255
16,067
Aligned
1,245
1,245
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-8%
59 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-3%
49 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
141 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
14,832
A: 10 / B: 14822
Series A
Starbucks Corp
SBUX
Market cap 110.8B · 381,000 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
DGS5
FRED · 16,067 raw → 16,067 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
50
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0501
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.1708
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: fred-dgs5_stock-sbux_5y
DGS5
5Y Treasury Yield
Strongest positive