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15Y Mortgage Rate vs Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
Correlation
of % moves
+21%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-38
144
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+21%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+5% → +36%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
144 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,830
693
Normalized
1,830
693
Prepared
1,830
146
Aligned
144
144
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
143
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+21%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
143 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+21%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-3%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+24%
38 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
64 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,688
A: 1686 / B: 2
Series A
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,830 raw → 1,830 prepared
Series B
Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
OILT
Stock · 693 raw → 146 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4514
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0018
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-mortgage15us_stock-oilt_weekly_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.