SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+93%
of values
In sync
71%
of periods
History
1,218
weeks · through 2026-18
These move in the same direction about 71% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~86% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
70.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+93%
Based on values
95% CI
+92% → +94%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,218 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
5,836
1,810
Normalized
5,836
1,810
Prepared
1,218
1,810
Aligned
1,218
1,218
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
86.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,218
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+93%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,218 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+93%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+93%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+79%
98 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+61%
115 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
36 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
592
A: 0 / B: 592
Series A
10Y Real Yield
DFII10
FRED · 5,836 raw → 1,218 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,810 raw → 1,810 prepared
Sign agreement
83.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
41
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.2020
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.1434
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-dfii10_fred-mortgage15us_5y