Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+89%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-04
1,276
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~79% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+89%
Based on values
95% CI
+88% → +90%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,276 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,924
1,869
Normalized
5,924
1,869
Prepared
5,924
1,869
Aligned
1,276
1,276
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
79%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,276
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+89%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,276 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+89%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+89%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+53%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-12%
125 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,241
A: 4648 / B: 593
Series A
10Y Real Yield
DFII10
FRED · 5,924 raw → 5,924 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,869 raw → 1,869 prepared
Sign agreement
85.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
22
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.5410
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.5891
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dfii10_fred-iorb_daily_5y