SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+100%
of values
In sync
95%
of periods
History
1,810
days · through 2026-04-30
These move in the same direction about 95% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~99% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
94.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+100%
Based on values
95% CI
+100% → +100%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,810 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
2,875
1,810
Normalized
2,875
1,810
Prepared
2,875
1,810
Aligned
1,810
1,810
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
99.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,810
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+100%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,810 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+100%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+100%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+98%
112 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+97%
128 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,065
A: 1065 / B: 0
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,875 raw → 2,875 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,810 raw → 1,810 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
47
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.0538
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.8879
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-mortgage15us_fred-mortgage30us_5y