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Correlation
of values
+91%
In sync
of periods
71%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-19
1,811
These move in the same direction about 71% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~83% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
70.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+91%
Based on values
95% CI
+90% → +92%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,811 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
10,124
1,811
Normalized
10,124
1,811
Prepared
2,106
1,811
Aligned
1,811
1,811
Invalid removed
R²(i)
83.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,811
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+91%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,811 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+91%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+91%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+70%
91 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+63%
118 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-40%
40 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
295
A: 295 / B: 0
Series A
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,124 raw → 2,106 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,811 raw → 1,811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
66
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.0236
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.2537
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dbaa_fred-mortgage15us_weekly_5y