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Correlation
of % moves
-20%
In sync
of periods
37%
History
weeksweeks · through 2025-17
187
These move in the same direction about 37% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
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Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
37%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-20%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-33% → -5%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
187 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
898
1,707
Normalized
898
1,707
Prepared
187
1,707
Aligned
187
187
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
186
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-20%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
186 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-20%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-2%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+15%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
117 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,520
A: 0 / B: 1520
Series A
MKFG
Stock · 898 raw → 187 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,707 raw → 1,707 prepared
Sign agreement
12.8%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4113
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0040
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 5 months ago · ID: fred-stlfsi4_stock-mkfg_weekly_5y
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Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.