SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-75%
of values
In sync
50%
of periods
History
77
days · through 2026-01-01
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~56% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Velocity of M2 Money Stock moves ~6 days before Real Personal Consumption
Watch Velocity of M2 Money Stock for an early read on Real Personal Consumption.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-75%
Based on values
95% CI
-83% → -63%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
77 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
231
269
Normalized
231
269
Prepared
231
269
Aligned
77
77
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
56.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
77
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
-6 days
Correlation at this shift
-88%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Velocity of M2 Money Stock shifted 6 days later. Reads: "Does Real Personal Consumption today line up with Velocity of M2 Money Stock 6 days ago?"
71 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-75%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-6 days
-88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+53%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+94%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+12%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
346
A: 154 / B: 192
Series A
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 231 raw → 231 prepared
Series B
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
M2V
FRED · 269 raw → 269 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.7303
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-m2v_fred-pcec96_5y