SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+98%
of values
In sync
76%
of periods
History
231
days · through 2026-03-01
These move in the same direction about 76% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~97% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
75.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+98%
Based on values
95% CI
+98% → +99%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
231 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
231
241
Normalized
231
241
Prepared
231
241
Aligned
231
231
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
96.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
231
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+98%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
231 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+98%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+98%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+15%
167 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-85%
61 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10
A: 0 / B: 10
Series A
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 231 raw → 231 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 241 raw → 241 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0026
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-7.9303
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-pcec96_5y