SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-26%
of values
In sync
41%
of periods
History
248
days · through 2026-04-24
These move opposite each other about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~7% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Interest on Reserve Balances moves ~6 days before St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Watch Interest on Reserve Balances for an early read on St. Louis Financial Stress Index.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-26%
Based on values
95% CI
-37% → -14%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
248 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,687
1,741
Normalized
1,687
1,741
Prepared
1,687
1,741
Aligned
248
248
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
6.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
248
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
-6 days
Correlation at this shift
-37%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Interest on Reserve Balances shifted 6 days later. Reads: "Does St. Louis Financial Stress Index today line up with Interest on Reserve Balances 6 days ago?"
242 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-6 days
-37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-13%
240 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,932
A: 1439 / B: 1493
Series A
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,687 raw → 1,687 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,741 raw → 1,741 prepared
Sign agreement
9.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.4163
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.0287
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-iorb_fred-stlfsi4_5y