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Correlation
of values
-26%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-26
257
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~7% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Interest on Reserve Balances moves ~12 weeks before St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Watch Interest on Reserve Balances for an early read on St. Louis Financial Stress Index.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-26%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
257 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,696
1,806
Normalized
1,696
1,806
Prepared
1,696
259
Aligned
257
257
Invalid removed
7%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
257
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-46%
+21% stronger than no-shift baseline
Interest on Reserve Balances shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does St. Louis Financial Stress Index today line up with Interest on Reserve Balances 12 weeks ago?"
245 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
-46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+30%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-25%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-21%
227 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,441
A: 1439 / B: 2
Series A
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,696 raw → 1,696 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,806 raw → 259 prepared
Sign agreement
8.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.3995
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.0199
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-iorb_fred-stlfsi4_weekly_5y