SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-35%
of values
In sync
76%
of periods
History
248
days · through 2026-04-25
These move opposite each other about 76% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Initial Jobless Claims moves ~6 days before Interest on Reserve Balances
Watch Initial Jobless Claims for an early read on Interest on Reserve Balances.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
76.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-35%
Based on values
95% CI
-46% → -24%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
248 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
3,095
1,741
Normalized
3,095
1,741
Prepared
3,095
1,741
Aligned
248
248
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
12.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
248
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
+6 days
Correlation at this shift
-41%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Interest on Reserve Balances shifted 6 days earlier. Reads: "Does Initial Jobless Claims today line up with Interest on Reserve Balances 6 days from now?"
242 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 days
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-59%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-47%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-12%
234 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,340
A: 2847 / B: 1493
Series A
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,095 raw → 3,095 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,741 raw → 1,741 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
43
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.5607
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-icsa_fred-iorb_5y