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Correlation
of values
-35%
In sync
of periods
70%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-35
266
These move in the same direction about 70% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Initial Jobless Claims moves ~12 weeks before Interest on Reserve Balances
Watch Initial Jobless Claims for an early read on Interest on Reserve Balances.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
70%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-35%
Based on values
95% CI
-45% → -24%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
266 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
3,113
1,869
Normalized
3,113
1,869
Prepared
3,113
268
Aligned
266
266
Invalid removed
R²(i)
12%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
266
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-46%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Interest on Reserve Balances shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Initial Jobless Claims today line up with Interest on Reserve Balances 12 weeks from now?"
254 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 weeks
-46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-34%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-33%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-12%
199 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,849
A: 2847 / B: 2
Series A
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,113 raw → 3,113 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,869 raw → 268 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
51
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.3553
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-icsa_fred-iorb_weekly_5y