SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 44% of the time
Weak positive
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
Alphabet is a holding company that wholly owns internet giant Google. The California-based company derives slightly less than 90% of its revenue from Google services, the vast majority of which is advertising sales. Alongside online ads, Google services houses sales stemming from Google's subscription services (YouTube TV and YouTube Music, among others), platforms (sales and in-app purchases on Play Store), and devices (Chromebooks, Pixel smartphones, and smart home products such as Chromecast). Google's cloud computing platform accounts for roughly 10% of Alphabet's revenue. The firm's investments in up-and-coming technologies such as self-driving cars (Waymo), health (Verily), and interne
Market cap 4.7T · 190,820 employees
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
What to Watch
30Y Mortgage Rate moves ~12 weeks before GOOGL
Watch 30Y Mortgage Rate for an early read on GOOGL.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-17%) and fall (+3%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+22%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Alphabet Inc. Class A Common Stock today line up with 30Y Mortgage Rate 12 weeks ago?"
249 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with 30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 12 weeks later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+16%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+4% → +28%
Likely range
R²
2.7%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
43.7%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
2,875
Normalized
1,255
2,875
Prepared
261
2,875
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-17%
59 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+3%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
146 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,614
A: 0 / B: 2614
Series A
Alphabet Inc. Class A Common Stock
GOOGL
Market cap 4.7T · 190,820 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,875 raw → 2,875 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0037
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.3060
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: fred-mortgage30us_stock-googl_5y
MORTGAGE30US
30Y Mortgage Rate
Strongest positive