Correlation
of values
+48%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-09
231
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~23% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Real Personal Consumption moves ~9 weeks before USD/HKD Exchange Rate
Watch Real Personal Consumption for an early read on USD/HKD Exchange Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+48%
Based on values
95% CI
+37% → +57%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
231 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
231
11,370
Normalized
231
11,370
Prepared
231
2,365
Aligned
231
231
Invalid removed
R²(i)
23.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
231
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+9 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+54%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/HKD Exchange Rate shifted 9 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Real Personal Consumption today line up with USD/HKD Exchange Rate 9 weeks from now?"
222 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+48%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+9 weeks
+54%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+2%
91 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+40%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-18%
116 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,134
A: 0 / B: 2134
Series A
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 231 raw → 231 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,370 raw → 2,365 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.6653
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 days ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_fred-pcec96_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.