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Correlation
of values
+50%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
234
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~26% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Real Personal Consumption moves ~8 months before USD/HKD Exchange Rate
Watch Real Personal Consumption for an early read on USD/HKD Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+50%
Based on values
95% CI
+40% → +59%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
234 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
234
11,432
Normalized
234
11,432
Prepared
234
547
Aligned
234
234
Invalid removed
R²(i)
26%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
234
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+8 months
Correlation at this shift
+56%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/HKD Exchange Rate shifted 8 months earlier. Reads: "Does Real Personal Consumption today line up with USD/HKD Exchange Rate 8 months from now?"
226 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+50%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+8 months
+56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+1%
97 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+5%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-21%
110 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
313
A: 0 / B: 313
Series A
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 234 raw → 234 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,432 raw → 547 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.6630
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_fred-pcec96_monthly_5y