Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+96%
In sync
of periods
66%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
232
These move in the same direction about 66% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~92% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
65.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+96%
Based on values
95% CI
+95% → +97%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
232 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
232
13,952
Normalized
232
13,952
Prepared
232
665
Aligned
232
232
Invalid removed
R²(i)
92.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
232
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+96%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
232 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+96%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+96%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+31%
129 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+67%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
79 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
433
A: 0 / B: 433
Series A
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 232 raw → 232 prepared
Series B
NASDAQ Composite
NASDAQCOM
FRED · 13,952 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3.1464
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-33984.7134
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-nasdaqcom_fred-pcec96_monthly_5y