SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
Overview
Relationship
These move opposite each other about 45% of the time
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Read
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
The saved window keeps correlation, overlap, alignment, and freshness anchored to the same computed record.
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (-19%) is running 1.0σ away from the long-run average of -77%.
CLOV moves ~12 weeks before 30Y Mortgage Rate
Watch CLOV for an early read on 30Y Mortgage Rate.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-26%) and fall (-12%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-83%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
30Y Mortgage Rate shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Clover Health Investments, Corp today line up with 30Y Mortgage Rate 12 weeks from now?"
249 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-77%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 weeks
-83%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-77%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-81% → -71%
Likely range
R²
58.9%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
45.3%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
2,875
Normalized
1,255
2,875
Prepared
261
2,875
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-26%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-12%
63 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-20%
140 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,614
A: 0 / B: 2614
Series A
Clover Health Investments, Corp
CLOV
Market cap 1.3B · 724 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,875 raw → 2,875 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4361
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.1809
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: fred-mortgage30us_stock-clov_5y