Correlation
of values
+55%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
daysdays · through 2026-03-01
241
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~30% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Avg Hourly Earnings moves ~6 days before Building Permits
Watch Avg Hourly Earnings for an early read on Building Permits.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+55%
Based on values
95% CI
+45% → +63%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
241 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
795
241
Normalized
795
241
Prepared
795
241
Aligned
241
241
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
30.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
241
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
-6 days
Correlation at this shift
+65%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 6 days later. Reads: "Does Building Permits today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 6 days ago?"
235 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+55%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-6 days
+65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+6%
101 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
135 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
554
A: 554 / B: 0
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 795 raw → 795 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 241 raw → 241 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
12
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0071
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
18.0756
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 days ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-permit_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.