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Correlation
of values
+55%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
243
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~30% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Avg Hourly Earnings moves ~18 months before Building Permits
Watch Avg Hourly Earnings for an early read on Building Permits.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+55%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
243 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
797
244
Normalized
797
244
Prepared
797
244
Aligned
243
243
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
30%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
243
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+76%
+21% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Building Permits today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 18 months ago?"
225 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+55%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+76%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+8%
104 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
134 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
555
A: 554 / B: 1
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 244 raw → 244 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
12
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0073
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
17.9566
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-permit_monthly_5y