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Correlation
of values
+94%
In sync
of periods
64%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
244
These move in the same direction about 64% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~88% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
64%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+94%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
244 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
244
13,057
Normalized
244
13,057
Prepared
244
643
Aligned
244
244
Invalid removed
88%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
244
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+94%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
244 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+94%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+94%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+15%
147 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+60%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-33%
91 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
399
A: 0 / B: 399
Series A
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 244 raw → 244 prepared
Series B
USD/LKR Exchange Rate
DEXSLUS
FRED · 13,057 raw → 643 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
14.8314
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-222.1951
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-dexslus_monthly_5y