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Correlation
of values
+60%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
243
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~36% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Sticky Price CPI moves ~16 months before Avg Hourly Earnings
Watch Sticky Price CPI for an early read on Avg Hourly Earnings.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+60%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
243 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
701
244
Normalized
701
244
Prepared
701
244
Aligned
243
243
Invalid removed
36%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
243
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+16 months
Correlation at this shift
+65%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 16 months earlier. Reads: "Does Sticky Price CPI today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 16 months from now?"
227 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+16 months
+65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+47%
108 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+15%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
128 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
459
A: 458 / B: 1
Series A
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 701 raw → 701 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 244 raw → 244 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
2.4724
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
20.2033
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_monthly_5y