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Correlation
of values
+59%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
245
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~35% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Sticky Price CPI moves ~18 months before Avg Hourly Earnings
Watch Sticky Price CPI for an early read on Avg Hourly Earnings.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+59%
Based on values
95% CI
+50% → +67%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
245 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
703
245
Normalized
703
245
Prepared
703
245
Aligned
245
245
Invalid removed
R²(i)
35%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
245
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+65%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Sticky Price CPI today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 18 months from now?"
227 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+48%
108 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+15%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
130 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
458
A: 458 / B: 0
Series A
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 703 raw → 703 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 245 raw → 245 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
2.4762
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
20.2791
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_monthly_5y