SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-18%
of % moves
In sync
51%
of periods
History
115
weeks · through 2026-17
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~3% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Initial Jobless Claims moves ~11 weeks before ATCH
Watch Initial Jobless Claims for an early read on ATCH.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-18%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-35% → +1%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
115 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
558
3,095
Normalized
558
3,095
Prepared
117
3,095
Aligned
115
115
Invalid removed
Explore
R²(i)
3.1%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
115
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-11 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-31%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Initial Jobless Claims shifted 11 weeks later. Reads: "Does ATCH today line up with Initial Jobless Claims 11 weeks ago?"
104 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-18%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-11 weeks
-31%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-37%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-8%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-13%
59 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,982
A: 2 / B: 2980
Series A
ATCH
Stock · 558 raw → 117 prepared
Series B
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,095 raw → 3,095 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
28
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-48.8514
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
224214.0665
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-icsa_stock-atch_5y
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.