SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-22%
of % moves
In sync
50%
of periods
History
285
days · through 2026-05-01
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
US Economic Policy Uncertainty moves ~6 days before USAR
Watch US Economic Policy Uncertainty for an early read on USAR.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-22%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-33% → -11%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
285 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
286
15,098
Normalized
286
15,098
Prepared
286
15,098
Aligned
285
285
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
5.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
285
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
-6 days
Correlation at this shift
-29%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Economic Policy Uncertainty shifted 6 days later. Reads: "Does USAR today line up with US Economic Policy Uncertainty 6 days ago?"
279 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-22%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-6 days
-29%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+3%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-2%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
121 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
14,814
A: 1 / B: 14813
Series A
USAR
Stock · 286 raw → 286 prepared
Series B
US Economic Policy Uncertainty
USEPUINDXD
FRED · 15,098 raw → 15,098 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
102
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-5.3841
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
455.0727
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-usepuindxd_stock-usar_5y