SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-30%
of values
In sync
55%
of periods
History
531
months · through 2026-03
These move opposite each other about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Bank Reserves moves ~18 months before 10Y-3M Yield Spread
Watch Bank Reserves for an early read on 10Y-3M Yield Spread.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-30%
Based on values
95% CI
-38% → -22%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
531 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
11,085
807
Normalized
11,085
807
Prepared
533
807
Aligned
531
531
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
9.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
531
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-43%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Bank Reserves shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does 10Y-3M Yield Spread today line up with Bank Reserves 18 months ago?"
513 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
72 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-17%
67 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-29%
110 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
278
A: 2 / B: 276
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,085 raw → 533 prepared
Series B
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
89.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-308.7304
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1445.2403
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-t10y3m_fred-totresns_5y