SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-90%
of values
In sync
47%
of periods
History
1,189
days · through 2026-05-01
These move opposite each other about 47% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~81% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-90%
Based on values
95% CI
-91% → -89%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,189 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
11,085
1,741
Normalized
11,085
1,741
Prepared
11,085
1,741
Aligned
1,189
1,189
Invalid removed
Explore
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
81.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,189
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-90%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,189 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-90%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-90%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-17%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-4%
239 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,448
A: 9896 / B: 552
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,085 raw → 11,085 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,741 raw → 1,741 prepared
Sign agreement
47.4%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.5341
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.5183
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-iorb_fred-t10y3m_5y
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.