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Correlation
of values
-84%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-06
2,061
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~71% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-84%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,061 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
11,129
2,061
Normalized
11,129
2,061
Prepared
11,129
2,061
Aligned
2,061
2,061
Invalid removed
71%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
2,061
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-84%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,061 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-84%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-84%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-23%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+32%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-4%
28 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
9,068
A: 9068 / B: 0
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,129 raw → 11,129 prepared
Series B
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,061 raw → 2,061 prepared
Sign agreement
64.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
29
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.7122
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.9850
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-sofr_fred-t10y3m_daily_5y