SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-85%
of values
In sync
48%
of periods
History
2,018
days · through 2026-05-01
These move opposite each other about 48% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~72% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-85%
Based on values
95% CI
-86% → -84%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,018 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
11,085
2,018
Normalized
11,085
2,018
Prepared
11,085
2,018
Aligned
2,018
2,018
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
72.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
2,018
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-85%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,018 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-85%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-85%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+12%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
64 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-17%
124 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
9,067
A: 9067 / B: 0
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,085 raw → 11,085 prepared
Series B
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,018 raw → 2,018 prepared
Sign agreement
63.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
33
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.7358
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.9497
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-sofr_fred-t10y3m_5y