Correlation
of values
-29%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-17
421
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-29%
Based on values
95% CI
-38% → -20%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
421 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,018
1,687
Normalized
2,018
1,687
Prepared
422
1,687
Aligned
421
421
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
421
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-29%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
421 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-29%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+19%
65 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+2%
55 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
129 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,267
A: 1 / B: 1266
Series A
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,018 raw → 422 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,687 raw → 1,687 prepared
Sign agreement
14.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0972
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0664
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 days ago · ID: fred-sofr_fred-stlfsi4_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.