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Correlation
of values
+94%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-23
427
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~88% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+94%
Based on values
95% CI
+92% → +95%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
427 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,042
1,815
Normalized
2,042
1,815
Prepared
427
1,815
Aligned
427
427
Invalid removed
R²(i)
87.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
427
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+94%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
427 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+94%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+94%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+25%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
64 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,388
A: 0 / B: 1388
Series A
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,042 raw → 427 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,815 raw → 1,815 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
14
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.7247
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.4986
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-mortgage15us_fred-sofr_weekly_5y