SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+14%
of values
In sync
53%
of periods
History
495
days · through 2026-03-01
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~2% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+14%
Based on values
95% CI
+5% → +22%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
495 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
706
15,098
Normalized
706
15,098
Prepared
706
15,098
Aligned
495
495
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
1.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
495
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+14%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
495 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+14%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+14%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+24%
68 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+12%
59 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-20%
122 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
14,814
A: 211 / B: 14603
Series A
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 706 raw → 706 prepared
Series B
US Economic Policy Uncertainty
USEPUINDXD
FRED · 15,098 raw → 15,098 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
171
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.7707
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
124.2778
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-recprousm156n_fred-usepuindxd_5y