SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
Overview
Relationship
These move together about 53% of the time
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Read
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
The saved window keeps correlation, overlap, alignment, and freshness anchored to the same computed record.
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+8%) is running 1.7σ away from the long-run average of +81%.
Initial Jobless Claims moves ~12 weeks before PYPL
Watch Initial Jobless Claims for an early read on PYPL.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-6%) and fall (+9%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+91%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
Initial Jobless Claims shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock today line up with Initial Jobless Claims 12 weeks ago?"
248 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+81%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
+91%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+81%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+76% → +85%
Likely range
R²
65.3%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
53.3%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
260
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
260 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
3,095
Normalized
1,255
3,095
Prepared
261
3,095
Aligned
260
260
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+9%
70 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
123 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,836
A: 1 / B: 2835
Series A
PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
PYPL
Market cap 44.8B · 23,800 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
ICSA
FRED · 3,095 raw → 3,095 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
612.3280
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
175636.4229
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: fred-icsa_stock-pypl_5y