SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
Overview
Relationship
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Read
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
The saved window keeps correlation, overlap, alignment, and freshness anchored to the same computed record.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+74%) is 2.4σ from the long-run average of -75% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
PTON moves ~8 months before Fed Funds Rate
Watch PTON for an early read on Fed Funds Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
Pair moves more tightly when both fall (-81%) than when both rise (-36%) — typical risk-off behaviour.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+8 months
Correlation at this shift
-91%
+17% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Funds Rate shifted 8 months earlier. Reads: "Does Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock today line up with Fed Funds Rate 8 months from now?"
52 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-75%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+8 months
-91%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-75%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-84% → -61%
Likely range
R²
55.5%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
50.0%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
60
Thin
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
862
Normalized
1,255
862
Prepared
61
862
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-36%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-81%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-14%
43 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
803
A: 1 / B: 802
Series A
Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock
PTON
Market cap 2.3B · 2,145 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 862 raw → 862 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0483
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.4200
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_stock-pton_5y