SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
Strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Created from the international operations of Altria in 2008, Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and reduced-risk products, including heat sticks, vapes, and oral nicotine offerings, primarily outside of the US. With the 2023 acquisition of Swedish Match, a leading manufacturer of traditional oral tobacco products and nicotine pouches primarily in the US and Scandinavia, PMI is not only dominant in smokable products but also has the Iqos and Zyn brands, which respectively dominate heated tobacco and nicotine pouches in most markets. It also owns the Veev brand in vapes.
Market cap 250.8B · 84,900 employees
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
What to Watch
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-18%) and fall (-13%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-81%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
261 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Fed Balance Sheet at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-81%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-85% → -76%
Likely range
R²
65.7%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
49.6%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,220
Normalized
1,255
1,220
Prepared
261
1,220
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-18%
51 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-36%
127 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
959
A: 0 / B: 959
Series A
Philip Morris International Inc.
PM
Market cap 250.8B · 84,900 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
WALCL
FRED · 1,220 raw → 1,220 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-23416.6972
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10484499.5918
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: fred-walcl_stock-pm_5y