SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 45% of the time
Strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Nike is the largest athletic footwear and apparel brand in the world. Footwear generates about two-thirds of its sales. Key performance footwear categories include basketball, running, and football (soccer). Its brands include Nike, Jordan (premium athletic footwear and clothing), NikeSkims (women's athleisure), and Converse (casual footwear). Nike sells products worldwide through company-owned stores, franchised stores (including about 5,500 in China), and third-party retailers. The firm also operates e-commerce platforms in more than 40 countries. Nearly all its production is outsourced to contract manufacturers in more than 30 countries. Nike was founded in 1964 and is based in Beaverton,
Market cap 66.8B · 77,800 employees
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (-98%) is 2.8σ from the long-run average of +80% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
NKE moves ~12 weeks before Fed Balance Sheet
Watch NKE for an early read on Fed Balance Sheet.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-19%) and fall (+3%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+86%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Balance Sheet shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Nike, Inc. today line up with Fed Balance Sheet 12 weeks from now?"
249 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Fed Balance Sheet shifted 12 weeks earlier
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+80%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+75% → +84%
Likely range
R²
64.3%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
45.4%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,220
Normalized
1,255
1,220
Prepared
261
1,220
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-19%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+3%
75 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
135 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
959
A: 0 / B: 959
Series A
Nike, Inc.
NKE
Market cap 66.8B · 77,800 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
WALCL
FRED · 1,220 raw → 1,220 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
21530.9369
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5563358.5316
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 1 hour ago · ID: fred-walcl_stock-nke_5y