SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 57% of the time
Strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Created from the international operations of Altria in 2008, Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and reduced-risk products, including heat sticks, vapes, and oral nicotine offerings, primarily outside of the US. With the 2023 acquisition of Swedish Match, a leading manufacturer of traditional oral tobacco products and nicotine pouches primarily in the US and Scandinavia, PMI is not only dominant in smokable products but also has the Iqos and Zyn brands, which respectively dominate heated tobacco and nicotine pouches in most markets. It also owns the Veev brand in vapes.
Market cap 250.8B · 84,900 employees
As the world's largest parcel delivery company, UPS manages a massive fleet of more than 500 planes and 100,000 vehicles, along with many hundreds of sorting facilities, to deliver an average of about 22 million packages per day to residences and businesses across the globe. UPS' domestic US package operations generate around 65% of total revenue, while international package makes up 20%. Air and ocean freight forwarding and contract logistics make up the remainder.
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+24%) is running 1.8σ away from the long-run average of -82%.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-9%) and fall (+10%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-82%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,255 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-82%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-83% → -80%
Likely range
R²
66.7%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
57.2%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,255
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,255 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
1,255
Normalized
1,255
1,255
Prepared
1,255
1,255
Aligned
1,255
1,255
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Market cap 88.3B · 460,000 employees
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-9%
100 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+10%
87 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
62 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Philip Morris International Inc.
PM
Market cap 250.8B · 84,900 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
UPS
Market cap 88.3B · 460,000 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.0896
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
281.1708
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: stock-pm_stock-ups_5y
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
Strongest positive