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5Y Breakeven Inflation vs Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
Correlation
of % moves
+44%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-22
685
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~19% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+44%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+38% → +50%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
685 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,935
692
Normalized
5,935
692
Prepared
5,935
692
Aligned
685
685
Invalid removed
R²(i)
19%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
684
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+44%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
684 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+21%
87 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+54%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
89 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,257
A: 5250 / B: 7
Series A
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,935 raw → 5,935 prepared
Series B
Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
OILT
Stock · 692 raw → 692 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.6329
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-t5yie_stock-oilt_daily_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.