SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+94%
of values
In sync
88%
of periods
History
5,837
days · through 2026-05-01
These move in the same direction about 88% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~88% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
88.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+94%
Based on values
95% CI
+93% → +94%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
5,837 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,837
5,837
Normalized
5,837
5,837
Prepared
5,837
5,837
Aligned
5,837
5,837
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
87.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
5,837
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+94%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
5,837 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+94%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+94%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+67%
124 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+90%
114 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
10Y Breakeven Inflation
T10YIE
FRED · 5,837 raw → 5,837 prepared
Series B
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,837 raw → 5,837 prepared
Sign agreement
99.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
181
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.3462
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.8734
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 days ago · ID: fred-t10yie_fred-t5yie_5y