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10Y-3M Yield Spread vs Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
Correlation
of % moves
+21%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-22
685
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+21%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+13% → +28%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
685 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
11,183
691
Normalized
11,183
691
Prepared
11,183
691
Aligned
685
685
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
684
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+21%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
684 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+21%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+25%
73 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+32%
65 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-61%
108 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,504
A: 10498 / B: 6
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,183 raw → 11,183 prepared
Series B
Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
OILT
Stock · 691 raw → 691 prepared
Sign agreement
51.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
22
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0738
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0001
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-t10y3m_stock-oilt_daily_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.