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30Y Treasury Yield vs Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
Correlation
of % moves
+18%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-21
684
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~3% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+18%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+11% → +26%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
684 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
12,395
692
Normalized
12,395
692
Prepared
12,395
692
Aligned
684
684
Invalid removed
R²(i)
3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
683
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+18%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
683 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+18%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+18%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+7%
78 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+25%
64 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
103 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
11,719
A: 11711 / B: 8
Series A
30Y Treasury Yield
DGS30
FRED · 12,395 raw → 12,395 prepared
Series B
Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
OILT
Stock · 692 raw → 692 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3264
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0002
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dgs30_stock-oilt_daily_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.