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Correlation
of values
+98%
In sync
of periods
88%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-06
12,341
These move in the same direction about 88% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~96% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
88%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+98%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
12,341 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
16,111
12,341
Normalized
16,111
12,341
Prepared
16,111
12,341
Aligned
12,341
12,341
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
96%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
12,341
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+98%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
12,341 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+98%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+98%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,770
A: 3770 / B: 0
Series A
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
FRED · 16,111 raw → 16,111 prepared
Series B
30Y Treasury Yield
DGS30
FRED · 12,341 raw → 12,341 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
129
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.8415
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.6387
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dgs30_fred-dgs5_daily_5y